A política é construída na base do argumento, o qual, muitas vezes, fundamenta-se por leituras, ilações e percepções. O país está a ser sufocado por uma crise financeira superveniente da retirada do apoio financeiro dos doadores ao governo moçambicano, o que criou um elevado défice orçamental e, consequentemente, dificuldades na cobertura das despesas públicas.
Olhando atentamente para os factos, desde a sua eclosão até aos recentes desenvolvimentos, há condições para começar a tirar ilações e lançá-las ao debate público, para que a sociedade as discuta melhor e, provavelmente, se encontre uma saída do imbróglio. Neste texto, ousado e abstraído de quaisquer crenças, deixo ao debate as minhas percepções.
DO DESAFIO DE GARANTIA DE SEGURANÇA
Com a descoberta de recursos naturais, o país ficou com o desafio de garantir a segurança dos investimentos externos realizados no seu espaço territorial; garantir a segurança na navegação aérea e marítima, das fronteiras terrestres e marítimas, assim como das pessoas e bens envolvidos nestes grandes projectos de investimento. De certeza, ninguém tem dúvida de que o país não tinha condições para garantir cabalmente a cobertura das despesas para ultrapassar este desafio.
Era necessário, e muito urgente, encontrar formas de financiar todo este sistema de segurança, num país em guerra, protagonizada por membros de um partido político com assento numa Assembleia da República, situação atípica na qual o governo devia, a priori, submeter o orçamento, incluindo a necessidade de compra de armas para aprovação. A meu ver, tal seria impossível ou, no mínimo, absurdo. Como se o governo pudesse ir à Assembleia da República e dizer: “aprovem a compra de armas para lutar convosco!”
DA HIPÓTESE PROVADA DE AQUISIÇÃO DE ARMAS
Para mim, é evidente e visível que, nos últimos cinco ou mais anos, as Forças de Defesa e Segurança de Moçambique ficaram mais bem apetrechadas. Não é segredo para ninguém e foram exibidos, na cerimónia de comemoração do 25 de Junho em 2015, aviões de guerra, helicópteros militares, tanques e outros equipamentos de assalto contra motins, o que, de certa forma, confirmou que o governo tivesse adquirido armas de guerra. A questão que se coloca é: qual foi a modalidade que o governo encontrou para realizar esta compra sem, no entanto, estar incluída nenhuma rubrica nas Leis do Orçamento aprovadas nos anos subsequentes para este efeito?
DA INTERRUPÇÃO DO APOIO FINANCEIRO AO ORÇAMENTO
Explodiu, como se de uma bomba se tratasse, a informação segundo a qual os países que garantiam o apoio ao Orçamento do Estado, o FMI e outras formas de apoio tinham interrompido o apoio programático ao governo de Moçambique, alegadamente por terem descoberto a existência de dívidas elevadas contraídas pelo governo, no entanto ocultas dos relatórios financeiros e orçamentos, num valor de cerca de 2.100 milhões de Dólares.
Daí seguiu todo o processo orquestrado com vista ao esclarecimento do caso que culminou com um relatório, que não agradou a todos, da empresa Kroll, contratada para fazer a investigação, por, entre outras causas, alegadamente não ter apurado os responsáveis. Porém, o mesmo relatório descreve o roteiro completo da operação financeira e destaca o desconhecimento do paradeiro de cerca de 700 milhões de dólares americanos, que resultariam de sobre-facturação, ponto que, não esclarecido, a comunidade internacional manteria o seu bloqueio financeiro ao país.
DAS POSIÇÕES DO FMI
O Fundo Monetário Internacional foi criado em 1945 e tem como objectivo básico zelar pela estabilidade do sistema monetário internacional, nomeadamente através da promoção da cooperação e de consulta em assuntos monetários entre os seus 181 países-membros, incluindo Moçambique. Um dos objectivos fundamentais do FMI é evitar que desequilíbrios nas balanças de pagamentos e nos sistemas cambiais dos países-membros possam prejudicar a expansão do comércio e dos fluxos de capitais internacionais. Além disso, o FMI planeia e monitora programas de ajustes estruturais e oferece assistência técnica e treinamento aos países-membros, e assim foi também com Moçambique.
Nas suas atribuições, o FMI não zela pela boa governação política dos países-membros, menos pelos programas anti-corrupção de cada país.
Seria total absurdo e grave interferência nos assuntos internos de Moçambique ouvir o FMI pronunciar-se em torno “da busca e apreensão” dos corruptos, como se de Procuradoria-Geral da República se tratasse!
O QUE SIGNIFICA “DÍVIDA OCULTA”?
O sistema financeiro internacional tem estabelecida, através de mecanismos próprios, uma forma central de controlo das transacções entre os países, pessoas, empresas, assim como a gestão da dívida externa, seja ela concedida entre países, seja entre bancos e países. Espera-se que não exista, de forma alguma, a possibilidade de se realizarem transacções de natureza das que foram feitas para Moçambique sem o conhecimento do sistema internacional de controlo de risco, do qual o FMI só pode ser um dos maiores actores.
Porém, o FMI gere a sua relação de cooperação com os países-membros, incluindo com Moçambique, por comunicação formal com o Governo de cada país. A falta de comunicação directa entre o governo e o FMI não pode significar ausência de conhecimento sobre as transacções, mas sim ausência de informação formal, por isso ocultação de informação privilegiada, o que os países estão proibidos de fazer. Daí a “dívida oculta”.
Havendo, no relatório da Kroll, indicação do desconhecimento do destino dado a cerca de 700 milhões de dólares americanos, provavelmente da sobre-facturação, é compreensível que o FMI manifeste preocupação, pois consta das suas atribuições zelar pela estabilidade do sistema monetário internacional, assim como dos fluxos de capitais internacionais, e este dinheiro pode eventualmente estar em mãos criminosas, o que pode, a qualquer momento, desestabilizar a segurança internacional, desequilibrando, deste modo, o sistema monetário internacional, com prejuízo macroeconómico maior.
DA RESPONSABILIZAÇÃO
Fica claro que com este cenário todo, nomeadamente (i) a necessidade de o governo suprir as suas necessidades de segurança, nas condições em que se encontrava, e não tendo encontrado melhor mecanismo para fazê-lo; (ii) a necessidade de os doadores receberem o feedback dos países de apoio programático; (iii) o fracasso do sistema internacional de gestão de risco, ao não ter sabido identificar e evitar transacções desta natureza, tudo isto pressupõe uma responsabilização tácita e conjunta entre Moçambique como país, sistema monetário internacional, os países doadores e o FMI.
Sendo assim, urge a necessidade e humildade de assumir o erro conjunto e criar-se um sistema internacional de gestão de risco financeiro mais eficaz, assim como a nível interno a criação de mecanismos em cada país para que o FMI interfira na gestão transparente dos recursos financeiros doados. Sobre este ponto, consta que o FMI já indicou um técnico (residente) permanente no Ministério das Finanças para zelar pela boa utilização dos seus fundos, o que é de louvar.
Como podem ter notado, fixei a minha abordagem nas questões de fundo e não me imiscuí na boa governação interna, pois quero crer e ainda acredito nas nossas instituições, sendo que, a identificar-se uma acção desviante ou criminosa de algum ministro a título individual, que possa eventualmente ter induzido o governo no seu todo em erro, naturalmente será chamado à responsabilização.
Considero, todavia, que haveria relevância de separar as situações de Estado, de que o projecto de segurança da EMATUM, PROINDICUS e MAM é parte, de práticas desviantes que, eventualmente, possam ter ocorrido. Pode ser que as irregularidades que possam ter sido cometidas não invalidem a relevância de garantir a segurança do país.
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